2016 is shaping up to be one of the most unusual and unpredictable elections in memory. When looking at the question of who might win the general election, five names come up as being possibilities, with a couple being long shots and some others having a high chance even despite the craziness of the year. Let’s take a look at the players who have a realistic, or, at least, a realistic long shot, of winning the election.
He fought Hillary to a tie in Iowa, crushed her in New Hampshire, and is polling even in Nevada; a state thought to be a Clinton firewall. He is still a longshot to win the nomination from the Democratic side, but his followers are passionate, his populist message is resonating, and the excitement around his candidacy can’t be denied. Hypothetical polls even suggest he’s the hardest candidate to beat in hypothetical matchups. Could very possibly win as a Democrat and possibly as an independent if we end up with a Republican establishment vs. Democrat establishment vs. Trump independent vs. Bernie independent (though what a mess that would be). Also with Rubio, the only candidate who is seen as likable or active.
The numbers aren’t lying. Like it or not, Donald Trump seems incapable of hurting his poll numbers no matter what he says, and as long as there is a heavily split field he is going to have a good chance of winning the Republican nomination. Winning from there is an uphill battle, but he would be helped by Bloomberg running as an independent.
Most likely to win the Democratic nomination, especially with the DNC behind her. The national trends are more blue than red in Presidential elections, but most voters find her untrustworthy, and there’s no reason to believe rabid Bernie supporters will come out for her at the polls, leaving her in a fierce fight.
Could conceivably win the Republican nomination, but a long shot. Also extremely unpopular and seen as heavily unlikable, making winning a general election a long shot as well.
Outside a brokered convention where 100% of the establishment goes behind him, this is a long shot – but it is possible, and he would make one of the most responsible general election candidates out of the Republican field.
Chances are overwhelming one of these five will be the next President of the United States of America.